Market Setup for the Week: Technical Strength Amid Geopolitical Risk
Week of January 5th: $SPX, $GC, and $GOOGL
Despite escalating geopolitical headlines surrounding Venezuela, markets are behaving in a way that suggests confidence rather than fear. Energy prices sold off, while equities and gold held firm, a divergence that often signals markets are pricing future stability, not immediate disruption. Against that backdrop, both SPX and GC are setting up technically in ways that are worth paying attention to this week. Some Equities are also setting up nicely for a potential swing.
S&P 500 (ES / SPX): Pullback Into Trend, Not Breakdown
The SPY 0.00%↑ futures (/ES)are currently pulling back into a clearly defined rising daily trendline after a strong advance. Importantly, this move lower is occurring within the context of higher highs and higher lows, which adds to short-term confidence. The most recent pullback not only is falling into important trendlines but appears to be finding support around zones of support. Daily RSI on $SPX is hovering around 50–51, which historically tends to act as a trend support.
This type of pullback into trend support is often constructive, especially when it follows an impulsive move higher. Rather than signaling distribution, the structure suggests consolidation and digestion, with buyers stepping in at technically logical levels.
As long as ES holds this rising trendline, the broader setup favors trend continuation, not a regime shift.
Gold: Pullback Into Support, Not a Breakdown
GLD 0.00%↑ is pulling back into the $4350–$4400 zone looks more like a reset than a reversal. Daily RSI is approaching neutral (50), a level that has repeatedly acted as support in this trend. Structurally, gold remains in an uptrend, and the recent dip aligns with prior higher lows. Notably, gold strength alongside falling oil reinforces the idea that this is policy and geopolitical hedging, not inflation panic. SLV 0.00%↑ appears to also be rising in tandem for a similar but slightly more aggresive play.
Bonus play: Alphabet (GOOGL): Trend Intact, Breakout Structure Forming
Alphabet continues to trade within a well-defined uptrend channel, consolidating near the upper end of its range after a strong multi-month advance. From a technical perspective, this is constructive behavior; higher lows are holding, Bollinger Bands are tightening, and daily RSI remains elevated without flashing exhaustion. Importantly, price has reclaimed and held above prior resistance, turning it into support. We’ve been well positioned in GOOGL 0.00%↑ for some time, but on a shorter horizon, as long as it remains above the $300 area, particularly $304, the technical path favors continuation toward new highs, with consolidation serving as fuel rather than weakness. If you’re open to a more aggressive swing opportunity, even anything above $313 aiming for $321 seems feasible in its current state.
In macro-heavy environments, anything can happen, so always be careful and position yourself accordingly, but price action continues to offer clarity. The S&P 500 is consolidating into trend support rather than breaking down, gold is pushing higher as uncertainty persists, and falling energy prices suggest confidence in future supply rather than fear of disruption. This week isn’t about reacting emotionally to geopolitical headlines; it’s about recognizing when markets quietly confirm stability beneath the noise. Watch out for updates on thoughts throughout the week.